Thursday, 27 February 2020

D-Street headed for bloodbath | Rollover data suggests bear hug | Sebi seeks liquidity buffer in debt funds

MORNING NEWSLETTER

28 Feb, 2020 | 08:50 AM IST


Good Morning!

Value stocks require a certain growth scenario to outperform. But with manufacturing growth in a rut, GDP growth in low single digits, value is not a big draw for investors even though there are plenty of them going abegging. Hence, we have many of these stocks trading at single-digit PE multiple. As industry veteran Gopal Agrawal points out once there is an uptick in growth, these below price-to-book value and very high dividend yield stocks will bounce back suddenly. Till then, it got to be a blended approach between value and growth.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded nearly 170 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling a major meltdown ahead on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, share markets tracked another overnight plunge in Wall Street's benchmarks on Friday with the markets in China, Japan and South Korea all posting heavy losses. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI's Asia index excluding Japan shed 1.4%. Japan's Nikkei fell 3.3% on rising fears the Olympics planned in July-August may be called off due to the coronavirus. Australian shares dropped 2.8% to a six-month low while South Korean shares shed 2.1%.

    Overnight, Wall Street shares led the rout as the S&P500 fell 4.42%, its largest percentage drop since August 2011. It has lost 12% since hitting a record close on Feb. 19, marking its fastest correction ever in just six trading days. Dow fell 1,190 points, marking its biggest points drop ever.

    Oil prices fell for a sixth straight session on Friday and were on track for about a 12% weekly fall, the biggest in more than four years. Brent crude contract for May was down 90 cents, or 1.7%, at $50.83 a barrel, marking a 14-month low. WTI futures fell 73 cents, or 1.6%, to $56.36

    Extending gains for the third day, the rupee climbed 4 paise to close at 71.61 against the US dollar on Thursday amid easing crude oil prices and weakening of the greenback overseas.

LOOK WHO'S

DEBT FUND BUFFER… Sebi has exhorted the mutual fund industry to build an adequate 'liquidity buffer' for debt schemes to be better prepared for any event of a crisis in future. The capital markets regulator has also asked mutual funds to participate more in the voting process of company resolutions rather than abstain from them. The market regulator said the ongoing credit crisis that resulted in returns of various debt mutual fund schemes taking sharp hits has brought to surface the kind of liquidity pressures that the industry could face. Read More

REALTY BOOSTER… Real estate loans worth Rs 20,000 crore may come up for restructuring after new Reserve Bank of India rules that allowed banks and housing finance companies to defer the classification of troubled builder loans as bad for one year giving the industry more time to restructure its loans. This measure, coupled with the set-up of Rs 25,000 crore real estate alternative investment fund, should help ease the asset quality pain at least in the near term. Read More

FUEL PRICE CUT… Domestic rates of petrol and diesel, down about Rs 4 a litre since mid-January, are set to decline further as crude oil slumped to a 13-month low on Thursday to about $52/barrel on fears that the coronavirus outbreak may take a heavy toll on global economic growth and oil demand. Petrol is down Rs 3.74 a litre and diesel Rs 4.41 a litre since mid-January. In Delhi, petrol was priced at Rs 71.96 and diesel Rs 64.65 a litre on Thursday. Read More

WHO'S

BEAR HUG… Traders carried forward bearish bets to the March derivatives series as the stock market could remain on shaky ground because of continued worries over Covid-19 outbreak turning into a world-wide pandemic. With benchmark indices hitting four-month lows on Thursday, expiry day of the February series, analysts expect a bounceback, but fear any renewed strength could be short-lived. Nifty rollovers on expiry day stood at 69% on provisional basis, higher than the February series figure of 66%, said analysts. Read More

TATA POWER THREAT… Tata Power, which runs one of the country's largest power plants at Mundra in Gujarat, has threatened to stop supply from the plant to five states beginning March if they don't agree to tariff increases. The Mumbai-based company, which may incur a loss of Rs 1,000 crore from this one unit alone this year, has issued notices over the past few weeks to distribution companies owned by the state governments of Gujarat, Haryana, Rajasthan, Punjab and Maharashtra on the possible disruption. Read More

BLEAK HUL OUTLOOK: Unilever, which operates through local unit Hindustan Unilever, said India business growth will be "soft" because of the rural slump amid a broader economic slowdown. India, which accounts for 9% of Unilever's overall sales, has been regularly outperforming several key emerging markets for the conglomerate. But Brazil and Indonesia, which contribute 6% and 5% each, respectively, will be stronger in 2020, it said. For the Anglo-Dutch consumer giant, emerging markets generate about 60% of total turnover but average growth in these markets has fallen to 5-6% in past five years from 8-10% earlier. Read More

Meanwhile...
AGR WAR RAGES… Mobile phone operators are prepared to move the telecom tribunal if the department of telecom demands higher adjusted gross revenue dues than their self-assessed amounts, said industry executives. They said operators are finding huge discrepancies in the way DoT has calculated AGR dues, resulting in the government's estimates being far higher than their own assessments. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,370  -142.95
14,209  -119.59
30,187  -119.85
16,124  -208.45
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Citigroup has downgraded Mindtree to sell from neutral as it believes positives appear to be priced in. The firm said business of Mindtree has stabilised but macro challenges such as global slowdown and coronavirus impact, still remain.

    Software services exporter Cognizant will double investments in building cloud capabilities this year, CEO Brian Humphries told ET, as the company pushes to grow faster in digital technologies and regain its bellwether status

    State-run NBCC (India), formerly known as National Buildings Construction Corporation, is expected to generate ?32,000 crore from 8 million square feet of commercial space in South Delhi's Nauroji Nagar and Sarojini Nagar

    IndusInd Bank on Thursday indicated policy continuity and stability while naming insider Sumant Kathpalia as successor to outgoing chief executive Romesh Sobti

    Larsen & Toubro-sponsored IndInfravit Trust plans to raise about Rs 1,600 crore in a domestic bond sale as it seeks to fund the purchase of road assets from Sadbhav Infrastructure Project.

    State-owned ONGC and its subsidiary HPCL have bought out lenders in Petronet MHB, the firm that owns a petroleum product pipeline in Mangalore, for about Rs 371 crore.

UnQuote: GROWTH vs VALUE
A middle path between growth and value right approach at this point
Gopal Agrawal, CIO, DSP Investment Managers

The DAY PLANNER

    India Q3 GDP Growth Print
    India Jan Infrastructure Output
    India Feb Deposit Growth
    India Feb-end Forex Reserve
    India Jan-end Fiscal Deficit
    Japan Jan Unemployment Rate

OUTLOOK

HIGH PE STOCKS: SELL CONSUMER NAMES
    Dipen Mehta of Elixir Equities says from a tactical point of view, if an investor had a lot of his savings exposed to one investment theme called consumption, this is the time to sell off some of the high PE consumption stocks. "We all know which names they are. Instead, gear into some of the manufacturing exporters, which have also moved up. But, I think still there is scope for these stocks to move up," he said. Read More

V-SHAPED RECOVERY: IFS & BUTS
    Jehangir Aziz of JP Morgan says the Indian economy is going to benefit from the decline in oil prices. "But if it is a V-shaped recovery from this crisis, then commodity prices will also follow a V-shaped path and this benefit is going to be short-lived. While oil price is going to bring about some relief, the fact that global demand is going to drop sharply in the first quarter would mean that India will not escape the impact of that," says he. Read More

INDIA CEMENT: DON'T FOLLOW DAMANI
    Abhimanyu Sofat of IIFL says investors should look at a better price point to enter India Cements. "In the current momentum, you could see the stock continuing to do very well since Damani's stake has already reached more than 11%. Buying at very high prices would be something that investors should not do, because investors like them tend to look at time periods of more than five years or 10 years when they are investing whereas most of the normal investors do not have that much patience," he says. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Honeywell Automation India Ltd. 28 Feb, 2020 | 08:08 AM IST buyBuy
Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. 28 Feb, 2020 | 08:09 AM IST buyBuy


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