Wednesday, 26 February 2020

Markets in for more pain | Dividend rush on Dalal Street | Big Bull's firm in race for IDBI Federal Life

MORNING NEWSLETTER

27 Feb, 2020 | 08:22 AM IST


Good Morning!

Most PSUs are now value bets on Dalal Street; they offer solid dividend yields, have good cash flows and log better growth rates than others. While all of that qualifies them for premium valuations, what keeps investors away is the looming supply of fresh paper. As Mahesh Patil of Birla Sun Life AMC puts it, "No matter at what price you buy it, there is supply coming in at a lower level." The solace, if any, is that things can still catch up when one gets a dividend yield higher than bond yields. Maybe, a clearer disinvestment agenda can do them some good.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded nearly 100 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling a possible meltdown ahead on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, share markets slipped and oil prices fell, struggling to find a footing as the rapid global spread of the coronavirus left investors on edge and seeking safety in gold and bonds. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan . traded either side of flat. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.5%, for a loss of more than 6% this week so far. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.4%

    Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell almost half a percent and the S&P500 0.4% - a slowdown from consecutive days of 3% drops that have put the indices underwater for the year so far. However, Nasdaq Composite added 15.16 points, or 0.17%, to end at 8,980.

    US crude made a fresh one-year low of $48.17 a barrel in Asian trade on Thursday after slipping below $50 on Wednesday to its lowest since January 2019, as Asia, Europe and oil-producing countries in the Middle East reported hundreds of new coronavirus cases.

    Extending gains for the second day, the rupee on Wednesday rose by 20 paise to settle at 71.65 against the US dollar in line with other Asian currencies, helped by lower crude oil prices.

LOOK WHO'S

DIVIDEND FESTIVAL… Companies are rushing to pay dividends to shareholders before the new budget proposal, which makes dividend income taxable up to 43% in the hands of the recipient, takes effect from April. So far, 204 companies have announced dividends since February 1, compared with 90 during the similar period in 2019 and 98 in 2018. The boards of 32 more companies are meeting in the next three days to decide on the dividend. The Bajaj Auto board has declared an interim dividend of 1,200% or Rs 120 per share. Shree Cement has announced an interim dividend of 1,100%. Symphony has declared a special dividend of 900%, among others. Read More

BIG BULL'S BIG BID… Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's RARE Equity, HDFC Life Insurance and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance have been shortlisted from amongst a list of suitors who have submitted proposals to acquire a significant stake in IDBI Federal Life Insurance, reviving a transaction that had been shelved two years ago due to uncertainty over the ownership of the life insurers loss-making parent, IDBI Bank, according to people aware of the matter. The three bidders have bid for up to 74% stake in the life insurance company, valuing it at between Rs 2,400 crore and Rs 3,000 crore. Read More

PURI SUCCESSOR… HDFC Bank Managing Director Aditya Puri said his vision for the successor at the most successful lender in the country is aligned with that of HDFC group companies' elder statesman Deepak Parekh, squelching speculation that they had differences over the succession process. "In all fairness, Deepak and I have no differences," Aditya Puri told ET in an interview. "We all want the best person in the organisation. He hasn't even discussed the subject with me… I don't know for how many months." Read More

WHO'S

FPIs RUSH FOR EXIT… Foreign investors are rushing out of Dalal Street amid growing aversion to riskier assets in the wake of rapid global spread of the Covid-19 virus. The domestic stock market extended losses to the fourth day on Wednesday as FPIs stepped up sale of Indian shares, which dragged Sensex to close below 40,000 for the first time since October. FPIs offloaded shares worth Rs 3,337 crore on Wednesday, taking their total sales to over Rs 6,900 crore in three days. Had domestic institutions not bought shares worth Rs 2,786 crore, the losses would have been sharper. Read More

VODA IDEA PLEA… Vodafone Idea has called on the government to allow it to pay adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues over 15 years. The telecom company has also asked for a tax refund, cuts in licence fees and spectrum usage charges (SUC) and the establishment of a floor for tariffs among measures to help remain viable. In a letter to the DoT, the Finance Ministry and Niti Ayog, the telco, which has over 300 million subscribers, said it needs help from the government to stay in business. Read More

CORP DEPOSIT RATES FALL… Investors who are big savers in corporate fixed deposits are in for some disappointment. Various companies have slashed their deposit rates by 20-45 basis points following the cut in rates by the country's largest lender State Bank of India. While Bajaj Finance will reduce its rates by 25-40 basis points (bps) in the first week of March, Mahindra Finance and PNB Housing Finance have already reduced their deposit rates by 15-45 bps earlier this month. Read More

Meanwhile...
FLAT GDP GROWTH… India's economy is likely to have grown at the same pace as in the third quarter at 4.5%, most independent economists said, though others expect growth to be a tad faster, based on a slight pickup in agriculture and government spending. "Our composite leading indicator (index of 33 major leading indicators) suggests that gross domestic product growth to remain flat at 4.5% as in Q3 of FY20," said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, State Bank of India. India's economic growth slipped to a 26-quarter low of 4.5% in July-September from 5% in the first quarter. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,512  -187.45
14,329  -118.94
30,307  -125.85
16,332  -230.25
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Morgan Stanley has raised its price target on SBI by 14% to Rs 375 citing better performances of its subsidiaries — mutual fund, life insurance and cards businesses.

    Bharti Infratel is said to be hesitant about going ahead with the Indus Towers merger plan and sought to extend the process by two months in view of the uncertainty over the survival of Vodafone Idea

    NCLT Chandigarh branch has cleared the scheme of merger between consumer goods giant GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare and Hindustan Unilever, clearing the decks for GSK Plc to cash out its 5.7% stake in HUL.

    Gurugram-based Apollo Tyres on Wednesday said global private equity firm Warburg Pincus will invest $150 million in the company.

    Offers from SSG and Cerberus have been selected for a final vote after lenders of Altico met on Monday and shortlisted the two as the key contenders to take over the troubled real estate financier

    The Vedanta group said it will seriously evaluate acquiring the government's stake in BPCL but its decisions would depend on the valuation of assets

    Bharti Airtel can withstand a potential Rs 35,586 crore, or about $5 billion, payout towards its statutory AGR dues on the back of its recent $3 billion fundraise, Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday.

UnQuote: SAFETY HUNT
Flight to quality may turn focus on a chosen few stocks
Mahesh Patil, CIO, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC

The DAY PLANNER

    President Trump Speech
    BoJ Kataoka Speech
    Feb Nationwide Housing Prices for UK
    US Feb Initial Job Loss Claims

OUTLOOK

PHARMA: BET ON MNCs
    Independent market expert Ajay Bagga says Indian pharma is a good defensive bet, but valuations have not really peaked. "There is some more scale left, but unfortunately, the bottom lines have been impacted by the US revenue de-growth. The Indian market is patchy for them. It has not been strong growth. Five, six listed MNC pharma companies have done spectacularly well over the last year. We are expecting them to continue to do well," he says. Read More

DISCRETIONARY: PAINT FIRMS STAND OUT
    Rakshit Ranjan of Marcellus Investment Managers says some of the paint companies have created proper fortress around them; the likes of Asian Paints and Berger. "Even in a period of consumption slowdown, these firms have delivered year-on-year volume growth in mid teens quarter after quarter. So, companies that have such deep-rooted moats in a difficult environment like this are managing to grow fundamentals pretty healthy and that is what we are looking for," says he. Read More

GOLD: NEXT STOP $1,680
    Gautam Shah of Goldilocks Premium Research says the rally in gold is likely to continue. "We have been bullish on gold for a quarter now. It is already up 30 per cent from prices when we started covering it. It has all beautifully come together because you had an environment wherein precious metals started to do well and oil started to breakdown. The target we are looking at is $1,680," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Stampede Capital Ltd. 26 Feb, 2020 | 09:20 AM IST buyBuy
HCL Technologies Ltd. 26 Feb, 2020 | 09:16 AM IST SellSell


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