Wednesday, 1 January 2020

NCLT setback for Sun Pharma | Govt seeks to soft-land GST hike | Passive funds catch up with Indian investors

MORNING NEWSLETTER

2 Jan, 2020 | 08:34 AM IST


Good Morning!

Multibaggers have two drivers: earnings growth and PE expansion. So, you do not always need to buy stocks cheap and sell expensive to make money. As long as growth continues, the expensive would naturally become exorbitantly expensive. That's a formula market veteran Basant Maheshwari proffers. If a company is growing at 30%, valuations would expand at 10% or more so that you get more than 30% return on your stock. That should be the approach for investors in the current market.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 8 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling indecision on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, stocks kicked off the new decade higher, after global stocks ended the previous one at record highs, and buoyed by Chinese markets after Beijing eased monetary policy to support slowing growth. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.35%, China's the blue-chip CSI300 index gained 1.34% and Australian shares inched up 0.2%. Seoul's Kospi began the year down 0.85%, while shares in Taiwan added 0.51%. Markets in Japan are closed for a national holiday.

    US markets were closed overnight for New Year's Day

    In oil market, US crude gained 0.36% to $61.28 while global benchmark Brent crude rose to $66.24 a barrel, building on a rise that gave oil its biggest annual gain in three years in 2019.

    The rupee began 2020 on a positive note with gains of 14 paise against the US currency on the first trading day of the New Year on Wednesday.

LOOK WHO'S

Passive Gets Active… The passive mode of investment through exchange traded funds is gaining ground in India, similar to developed countries. According to the data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India, ETFs attracted Rs 24,083 crore in the first eight months of FY20. This was about double of the inflows in large-cap funds and half of the total inflows in equity funds during the period. The combined inflow in the equity schemes was Rs 48,891 crore between April and November 2019. Read More

GST Hike in Phases... India could look at a calibrated increase in GST tax rates to shield consumers from sudden price shocks, apart from minimising exemptions, as it seeks to lift tax revenue collections. A panel of officials on revenue augmentation, comprising officials from the states and the Centre, is reviewing the current rate structure. About 150 items that are exempt from GST are likely to get a close look. There are over 260 items currently in the 5% slab. GST collections grew about 9% in December to Rs 1.03 lakh crore, from Rs 94,726 crore a year earlier. Read More

WHO'S
Sun Pharma Setback... Sun Pharma's plan to consolidate its subsidiaries have hit a roadblock after the NCLT rejected a proposal in which India's biggest drug-maker sought to demerge an overseas unit. The decision was approved by the Sun Pharma board in May 2018. The company now has the option to challenge the NCLT ruling in higher courts. The NCLT stand could put a question mark on several other such restructuring proposals of India Inc that were seeking consolidation to help raise funds in overseas subsidiaries. Read More

No Respite in Motown…Wholesale dispatches of passenger vehicles are estimated to have marginally declined last month as automakers adjusted inventory ahead of the transition to Bharat Stage-VI emission norms amid sluggish demand in the local market. Maruti Suzuki saw wholesale dispatches increase 2.5% year-on-year to 122,784 units, albeit on a low base. Hyundai reported a 9.8% decline in wholesale dispatches. M&M registered a 4% increase at 15,691 units, while Toyota's dispatches slipped 45%. Read More

Banks Stingy with SMEs... Bank lending to India's micro, small and medium enterprises shrank from a year earlier as well as the beginning of FY20, despite measures by the government to boost credit flow to these businesses as lenders turned cautious due to slowing economic growth. The contraction in gross credit flow to the sector could be on the back of risk-averse lending by top banks as slowing consumption and stalling manufacturing growth have rubbed off on many of these businesses and raised likelihood of defaults, bankers and industry experts said. Read More

Meanwhile...
India's foreign direct investment equity inflows fell 1.4% in the second quarter of this financial year to $9.7 billion from $9.9 billion a year ago. On a sequential basis, FDI inflows fell 40% in the July-September quarter from $16.3 billion in the first quarter ended June 30, 2019, official data released on Wednesday showed. FDI equity inflows in the first quarter of this fiscal had increased 28% to $16.3 billion from $12.7 billion in the year-ago period. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,143 + 40.75
13,787 + 87.32
32,103  -58.75
15,722 + 69.75
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Fino Payments Bank is firming up plans to convert into a small finance bank. This will allow it to access cheaper funds from the RBI and disburse credit to customers.

    Coal India will spend nearly Rs 6,900 crore in acquiring land, heavy mining machinery, wagons and on-mine development activities in the current quarter, said its chairman AK Jha.

    Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels has filed draft papers with markets regulator Sebi for its proposed initial public offering to raise up to Rs 1,000 crore. The public issue comprises a fresh issue of up to Rs 400 crore and an offer-for-sale of up to Rs 600 crore.

    ONGC has begun an exercise to shed excess cost at the Mumbai offshore oil and gas fields of Panna-Mukta, whose control it regained after two-and-a-half decades and has already saved Rs 1 crore in shipping cost.

UnQuote: TREND SPOTTING
Market trend moving from small is beautiful to big is great
Basant Maheshwari, Basant Maheshwari Wealth Advisors

The DAY PLANNER

    Dec Markit Manufacturing PMI for India
    Caixin Manufacturing Dec PMI for China
    US Dec Initial Jobless Claims
    US Dec Markit Manufacturing PMI

OUTLOOK

AUTO: NO COMEBACK KID
    Independent market expert Sameer Narayan says auto was a largely owned sector, which generated substantial returns in the past couple of years. "People are probably trying to make a case for a pullback but I do not think it will probably be anything more than that because I do not think somebody thinks of auto as a great sector to play the Indian consumption story any more. The valuation case does not exist for most of the auto names because a cyclical industry quoting at such high multiples is definitely not a very good risk-reward," he said.

BOND MART: QUALITY COUNTS
    Ajay Manglunia of JM Financial says the bond market will witness appetite in 2020, albeit selectively in good credits across rating bands. "Given the limited investment options for institutional investors, money will start flowing gradually towards traditional investment channels like mutual funds. This, in turn, will ensure demand for better credit papers. Triple-A rated issuances have increased to more than 80 per cent of the total market, while single-A and below have been at the lowest," he said.

QUALITY AT HIGH PRICE: STAY PUT
    Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal says quality will continue to do well in the market in the near term despite the valuation arguments. "The issue is whether one who is not invested can come in at these levels? Definitely, one should not come in these high quality names which have outperformed the market at these valuations. They have missed the bus and they have to look for other alternatives. But investors who are already sitting in, should continue to ride the momentum," says he.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
SRF Ltd. 1 Jan, 2020 | 11:52 AM IST buyBuy
Max Financial Services Ltd. 1 Jan, 2020 | 11:46 AM IST buyBuy


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