Margins go up in equity F&O bets | Infosys seeing project terminations | IDBI Bank closer to exiting PCA framework

MORNING NEWSLETTER 1 Jun, 2020 | 08:46 AM IST SENSEX 32,424 +223.51 NIFTY 50 9,580 +90.20 Gold 46,557 +152 USD/INR 75.61 -0.15

Good Morning! "You can disagree with the market, but you have to respect it." Those words of wisdom came from none else but Aswath Damodaran, the Dean of Valuation. He says that's what he has learnt in 35 years of investing. "Markets are a consensus between optimists and pessimists. If the optimistic side is winning now, that does not mean it is over. Two weeks from now or four weeks from now, it could shift," says he. And his advice? "Do not fight the market. It is seeing what a million investors are seeing. That is the market's job. Do not convince yourself you are right and the rest of the world is wrong." MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>> Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 170 points higher at 7 am (IST) in signs that Dalal Street is poised to build on Friday's rally. On Friday, Nifty50 closed around its intraday high, forming a bullish candle on both daily and weekly charts. The MACD also generated a fresh 'buy' signal on the daily chart. Many sectoral indices broke out of their consolidation ranges last week, indicating broadbased buying interest. Options data suggested a wider trading range for Nifty between 9,000 and 10,000 levels. Elsewhere in Asia, share markets started on a cautious note. Hong Kong's Hang Seng saw early gains of over 3%, while Tokyo, Seoul, Sydney and Shanghai saw more modest moves. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2%. US stock futures erased earlier declines as investors weighed the violent protests in some US cities that have stoked concerns about a reacceleration in infection rates and a damper on the economic recovery. On Friday, the Dow booked a weekly gain of 3.8%, while the S&P500 finished 3% higher and the Nasdaq gained 1.8%. Oil prices started soft on worries about US demand, but found some support from reports Russia had no objection to the next meeting of Opec and its allies being brought forward to June 4. Brent crude futures were off 8 cents at $37.76 a barrel, while US crude dipped 13 cents to $35.36. The rupee appreciated 14 paise to provisionally close at 75.62 against the US dollar on Friday as foreign fund inflows and weak American currency boosted investor confidence. The dollar slipped on Monday as investors looked past unrest in the United States to the global economic recovery from the coronavirus and hoped for an easing in Sino-US tensions. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar shrugged off early pressure, the euro remained firm and the yuan remained steady. LOOK WHO'S One-time listing window for unlisted NCDs… Sebi is considering an unprecedented one-time listing window for existing unlisted NCDs to ease stress at various mutual funds. ET quoted people familiar with the matter to report that mutual funds holding illiquid, lower-rated securities would be able to use this opportunity to offload them to buyers. The rise in risk aversion after the Covid-19 lockdown has made it difficult for funds to sell these securities without incurring huge losses. The markets regulator told the mutual fund industry to ask issuing companies whether they are interested in listing these NCDs. Read More Rules of the game change in F&O mart… Risk-takers will have to pay a steeper price to participate in India's equity derivatives market now. Traders betting on the direction of the index or a stock without insurance will have to pay higher upfront money from June 1 when the NSE's new margin norms kick in. The rules, however, encourage safer strategies like hedged trades, in which the initial margins are set to drop. From Monday, traders who buy or sell a futures contract or only sell options without any hedge, popularly known as naked positions, will end up paying 20-25% more as upfront margins. Read More New era begins in rupee derivatives... The rupee is set to enter a new era on Monday as local lenders Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and IndusInd Bank will likely start trade in the overseas derivative market, known as non-deliverable forwards. The move will help curb wild rupee swings and paves way for much-needed RBI intervention in the offshore market. Multinational companies, too, are likely to save hedging cost amid limited speculative bets. In March, RBI permitted Indian banks with licence to operate in GIFT City's IFSC to participate in the NDF market from June 1. Read More AND WHO'S Investors want Templeton schemes reopened… Investors in Franklin Templeton's debt schemes that are in the process of being wound up have sent a legal notice to market regulator Sebi, demanding necessary directions to Franklin Templeton Trustee Services to re-open the schemes until the regulatory framework has been put in place. Investors have also demanded that Sebi should appoint an administrator to take over Franklin Templeton Asset Management Company and FTTS and evolve a mechanism for ensuring timely payment of the dues of unit holders. Read More India Inc struggles to ramp up output… With a majority of manufacturing facilities across sectors still operating below optimum levels, India Inc awaits a pick-up in demand to ramp up production capacities as Lockdown 4.0 ends and Unlock 1.0 begins. Several manufacturers across sectors said their operations are running below 100% capacity. While those operating in essential services, such as pharma and FMCG, are better off but still not utilising full capacity, others in consumer durables, auto, auto components, tyres, jute and textiles find their factories stunted way below capacity. Manpower shortage and demand-related issues continue to plague companies. Read More Retail chains in rent standoff with malls… The battle between mall owners in India and their tenants, retailers across 350 brands, is set to take an ugly turn, with most threatening to shutter outlets in these shopping centres if their demands for rent-waivers and new rental agreements are not met. The move, which comes against the backdrop of the Centre allowing malls to reopen, is expected to help retailers — from Future Group and Arvind Brands to Lenskart and Bata — tide over nine to 12 months of less-than-usual footfalls. "We cannot survive without collaboration," Rakesh Biyani, MD of Future Retail told TOI. "If not, there will be further job losses in the sector." Read More Meanwhile... Tata rejects Mistry quasi-partnership claim... Ratan Tata rejected claims that his "personal letters of appreciation" to Pallonji Mistry, father of Cyrus Mistry, can be regarded as evidence of a quasi-partnership or any vested legal right in Tata Sons. The move by Cyrus Mistry, ousted as Tata Sons chairman in 2016, to seek "proportionate representation" on the Tata Sons board in the Supreme Court, based on these letters, is an afterthought since he had not done so in the original appeal filed in the NCLT in 2016. The Supreme Court on Friday decided to hear the cross-appeal filed by Cyrus Mistry over the NCLAT ruling along with the plea filed by Tata Sons challenging the tribunal's December 2019 order. Read More

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KEY INDICES Nifty Midcap 100 13,273 + 143.05 S&P BSE Small-Cap 10,893 + 123.26 Nifty Bank 19,297 + 127.45 Nifty IT 14,010  -18.1 Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>> Infosys says some clients of have terminated projects or reduced demand for its services amid the Covid-19 crisis, which could impact its profitability in the year ahead IDBI Bank is getting closer to exiting RBI's restrictive prompt corrective action framework after posting a profit for the first time in 13 quarters. PFC and REC have decided to offer 10-year loans to state distribution utilities at 9.5% under the Rs 90,000 crore liquidity infusion package BDR Pharma has signed a contract-manufacturing deal with Cipla for remdesivir, a patented product of US firm Gilead Sciences approved to treat Covid-19 patients Yes Bank may face hurdles to recover its dues to the promoters of Dish TV even after the bank acquired a 24.19% stake by invoking pledged shares following a debt default GoAir will restart operations from Monday with 50-60 daily flights and said the build-up could be a very gradual one. UnQuote: TIMELY ALERT Stop treating everything marquee investors say as the gospel truth Aswath Damodaran, Valuation Guru, Profession, Stern School of Business, NYU

The DAY PLANNER Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (06.00 am) China Caixin Manufacturing PMI May (07.15 am) India May Manufacturing PMI (10.30 am) May Auto Sales Numbers Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI May (01.30 pm) US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final May (0715 pm) OUTLOOK Returns delayed in value bets, not denied Prashant Jain of HDFC AMC says value investing is simply about buying a business that is strong and well-managed at a price which is lower than the fair value. "The discovery of fair value at times is a function of the environment in the market, and this time around, value investing has struggled for longer than what we had anticipated. Initially, it was driven by the elongation of the corporate NPA cycle and the delay in resolutions in the IBC. When we made good progress around that, we were hit with this. It is returns delayed and not returns denied," says he. Read More Big opportunity in fixed income Nitin Jain of Edelweiss Global Asset and Wealth Management says most of the alpha in a portfolio is created by making calibrated asset allocation calls and being very selective about the products you choose. "There is a very big opportunity in fixed income, which is very counter-intuitive because yields are very low now. But the reality is for next two-three years, we are headed for very low inflation and for a contraction, which will make real interest rate of 7% very high. Hence, it makes sense to play high quality paper of four-five years," says he. Read More Dalal Street joining global rally Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal says after a week of underperformance, the domestic market has started participating in the global rally. "In monthly expiry, a lot of sectors like banking and financials and metals, where there were a lot of shorts, witnessed huge short covering. There was also some buying in metals and global cyclicals. Opening up of the global economies and talks of a second round of stimulus from the likes of Japan and the US were some factors that helped the market move up," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS ICICI Bank Ltd. Buy ICICI Bank, target price Rs 353: Chandan Taparia 1 Jun, 2020 | 08:38 AM IST Buy Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. Buy Dr Reddy's Laboratories, target price Rs 4,250: Chandan Taparia 1 Jun, 2020 | 08:29 AM IST Buy

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Lockdown, Day 68: India at the crossroads

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES 31 May, 2020 | 06:50 PM IST SENSEX 32,424 +223.51 NIFTY 50 9,580 +90.20 Gold 46,557 +152.00 USD/INR 75.61 -0.15

Lockdown, Day 68: India at the crossroads Modern economies will change forever after the coronavirus pandemic passes says a Bloomberg report. This holds equally true for Indian companies who are now trying to recover from a plummeting demand. The state is also pitching in. The government has dropped contentious clauses paving the way for Apple and others to make a larger play in local production and attract global manufacturers. All this even as India has announced an Unlock 1.0. Track this space for latest updates... COUNT SO FAR UP reports 262 new cases; state tally nears 3,000 Cases shoot up by 110 to 3,571 in Andhra Pradesh Assam reports 56 cases; state tally rises to 1,272 Manipur reports 4 cases, total number at 66. Rajasthan reports 76 cases, total positive cases at 8693 91 Maharashtra police personnel test positive in last 24 hours Maharashtra case count rises 65,168 Odisha reports 129 cases, total number at 1,948 55 new COVID19 cases in Indore district, tally 3,486 Arunachal reports fourth COVID-19 case Fourth phase of lockdown accounts for nearly half of total cases World India Tally Toll Tally Toll 6,075,786 369,529 182,143 5,164 LIFE UNDER LOCKDOWN Govt releases Lockdown 5.0 guidelines Unlock 1.0: Guidelines for Uttar Pradesh 'Mission Begin Again' aims Maharashtra International flight operations to remain suspended till June 30 Shatabdi trains to be redeployed; bookings to start soon 529 domestic flights carrying 45,646 passengers operated on Saturday PM Modi addresses the nation through Mann Ki Baat Herd immunity as COVID-19 strategy risky: CSIR DG CISCE allows class 10,12 students to appear for boards later Air India adds Covid tests to pre-flight checklist From June 1, Goa to get more trains, flights ICMR asks states to do sero-survey in high-risk populations Delhi govt seeks Rs 5,000 crore from Centre to pay employees' salaries BUSINESS AND ECONOMY FPIs net sellers for 3rd straight month in May; pull out Rs 7,366 cr Infosys says risks could hit profitability, CEO compensation jumps 27% Closure of economic activities should have been reviewed carefully: Yamaha Majority of consumers want to buy goods from kiranas going forward BBB recommends Ashwini Bhatia for post of SBI MD ICAI to develop audit quality indicators; seeks to bolster competence Bank Credit growth decelerates to 7.3 per cent in April Reliance on track to achieve zero net debt: Report Amid lockdown and COVID-19 scare, digitisation gains momentum India paves way for Apple, others to increase domestic production Toyota Kirloskar sales dip 86 pc in May AROUND THE WORLD Greece to allow tourists from all nations US cities fear protests may fuel new wave of virus outbreaks Singapore in talks with several countries to establish 'green lanes' for travel Coronavirus cases in Pakistan rise above 69,470 Saudi Arabia reopens mosques with strict regulations Donald Trump postpones G7 summit, wants India, others to join group China's factories restart among weak domestic, global demand DEBATE THIS India should forget catching up with China in growth. Agree? Tell us here

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